{"id":1100,"date":"2023-11-15T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-15T01:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/\/?p=1100"},"modified":"2023-11-09T09:23:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T01:23:05","slug":"%e6%8b%bc%e5%a4%9a%e5%a4%9a%e5%a8%9b%e6%a8%82%e5%9f%8e%e7%84%a1%e7%a7%81%e5%88%86%e4%ba%ab%e8%bc%aa%e7%9b%a4%e6%9c%80%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac%e7%9a%84%ef%bc%96%e5%a4%a7%e5%bf%85%e5%ad%b8%e6%8a%80%e5%b7%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/\/%e6%8b%bc%e5%a4%9a%e5%a4%9a%e5%a8%9b%e6%a8%82%e5%9f%8e%e7%84%a1%e7%a7%81%e5%88%86%e4%ba%ab%e8%bc%aa%e7%9b%a4%e6%9c%80%e5%9f%ba%e6%9c%ac%e7%9a%84%ef%bc%96%e5%a4%a7%e5%bf%85%e5%ad%b8%e6%8a%80%e5%b7%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u62fc\u591a\u591a\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\u7121\u79c1\u5206\u4eab\u8f2a\u76e4\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\uff16\u5927\u5fc5\u5b78\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u4e00\u770b\u5c31\u6703\uff01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\u8f2a\u76e4\u904a\u6232\u57fa\u672c\u898f\u5247\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8f2a\u76e4\u904a\u6232\u57fa\u672c\u898f\u5247<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u8f2a\u76e4\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7531\u6578\u5b57\u3001\u984f\u8272\u548c\u8f49\u8f2a\u7d44\u6210\u7684\u6295\u6ce8\u904a\u6232\u3002\u5728\u5e78\u904b\u8f2a\u76e4\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u670937\u621638\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u3002\u904a\u6232\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u838a\u5bb6\u5728\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u8f2a\u76e4\u7684\u4e00\u5074\u62cb\u73e0\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u73e0\u5b50\u505c\u5728\u54ea\u500b\u8f2a\u76e4\u865f\u78bc\u4e0a\uff0c\u8a72\u6578\u5b57\u5c31\u662f\u8a72\u5c40\u7684\u7372\u52dd\u865f\u78bc\u3002\u8f2a\u76e4\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7a2e\u73a9\u6cd5\uff0c\u73a9\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6ce8\u55ae\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u6216\u6578\u5b57\u7d44\u5408\u3002

\u6700\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u8f2a\u76e4\u904a\u6232\u67092\u7a2e\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f\u6b50\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u548c\u7f8e\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u3002\u6b50\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u5305\u542b0\u523036\u7e3d\u517137\u500b\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u904a\u6232\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba48.65\uff05\u3002\u800c\u7f8e\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u5247\u662f0\u523037\u7684\u5340\u57df\u4e4b\u5916\u9084\u591a\u4e86\u201c 00\u201d\u5340\uff0c\u7e3d\u5171\u670938\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\u8f2a\u76e4<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u8f2a\u76e4 \u6295\u6ce8\u6280\u5de7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u53ea\u63a8\u85a6\u73a9\u6b50\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u70ba\u7f8e\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u6bd4\u6b50\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u591a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u201c 00\u201d\u5340\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u591a\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u5c31\u6703\u964d\u4f4e\u52dd\u7387\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u5230\u5be6\u9ad4\u8ced\u5834\u6216\u7dda\u4e0a\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce\uff0c\u90fd\u53ea\u63a8\u85a6\u73a9\u5bb6\u73a9\u6b50\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u5dee\u5225\u662f\uff0c\u6b50\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u9700\u8981\u63db\u684c\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6bd4\u7f8e\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u6a5f\u7387\u4f4e\u8a31\u591a\uff0c\u8d0f\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u4e5f\u6bd4\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u6b64\u63a8\u85a6\u73a9\u5bb6\u53ea\u8981\u73a9\u6b50\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u5373\u53ef\uff0c\u7f8e\u5f0f\u8f2a\u76e4\u5c31\u7576\u4f5c\u8a66\u6c34\u6eab\u5427\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u99ac\u4e01\u683c\u723e\u6295\u6ce8\u6cd5(Martingale)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u8f3810\u584a\u58d320\u3001\u8f3820\u58d340\u3001\u8f3840\u58d380\u4ee5\u6b64\u985e\u63a8\uff0c\u7e3d\u4e4b\u5c31\u662f10\u7684N\u6b21\u65b9\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u7121\u9650\u5ef6\u4f38\u62bc\u6ce8\u4e0b\u53bb\u5c31\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8f38\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u8981\u6709\u5920\u96c4\u539a\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u624d\u80fd\u4f7f\u7528\u9019\u62db\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8ced\u5834\u7d93\u5e38\u4e5f\u6703\u6709\u6295\u6ce8\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u5148\u4e86\u89e3\u76f8\u95dc\u898f\u5247\u76f8\u5c0d\u6bd4\u8f03\u4fdd\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\u99ac\u4e01\u683c\u723e\u6295\u6ce8\u6cd5(Martingale)\"<\/figure>\nA martingale is a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins the stake if a coin comes up heads and loses if it comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double the bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. Thus the strategy is an instantiation of the St. Petersburg paradox.(\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90<\/a> )<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u58d3\u7d05\u9ed1\u63d0\u9ad8\u52dd\u7387<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u8f2a\u76e4\u53ef\u4ee5\u6295\u6ce8\u5927\u5c0f\u3001\u55ae\u96d9\u3001\u7d05\u9ed1\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u54ea\u7a2e\u6295\u6ce8\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u7559\u610f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5169\u9ede\uff1a

1.\u4e0d\u8981\u8ffd\u9577\u9f8d\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4f60\u4e0d\u6703\u77e5\u9053\u54ea\u500b\u624d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u9577\u9f8d\uff0c\u76f2\u76ee\u8ffd\u7684\u8a71\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u8f38\u5f88\u6158\u3002

2.\u53ef\u4ee5\u62bc\u4ea4\u66ff\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7b2c\u4e00\u5c40\u62bc\u7d05\u3001\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5c40\u62bc\u9ed1\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u985e\u63a8\u7684\u9806\u5e8f\u5f80\u4e0b\u6295\u6ce8\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u597d\u8655\u5c31\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u771f\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u9577\u9f8d\uff0c\u4f60\u4e5f\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u7372\u5229\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u767c\u73fe\u662f\u77ed\u898f\u5f8b\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u7a2e\u984f\u8272\u4e0a\u62bc2\u52303\u6b21\uff0c\u518d\u63db\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u984f\u8272\u7e7c\u7e8c\u3002\u8acb\u6ce8\u610f\u4e0d\u8981\u63db\u5f97\u592a\u983b\u7e41\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u5c31\u6c92\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6578\u5217\u6280\u5de7<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u9019\u7b97\u662f\u6240\u6709\u6280\u5de7\u4e2d\u76f8\u5c0d\u6700\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u6295\u6ce8\u524d\u5148\u5beb\u4e0b\u6578\u5b57\u4f8b\u59821\u30012\u30013\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u4e0b\u6ce8\u91d1\u984d\u5b9a\u70ba\u6700\u5de6\u908a\u8207\u6700\u53f3\u908a\u6578\u5b57\u7684\u7e3d\u548c\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\u5c31\u662f1\uff0b3\uff1d4\uff0c\u4e0b\u6ce8\u5f8c\u5982\u679c\u7372\u52dd\u5c31\u64e6\u6389\u5df2\u7528\u904e\u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b2\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u8f38\u4e86\uff0c\u5c31\u628a\u8f38\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5beb\u5728\u6578\u5217\u53f3\u908a\uff0c\u7576\u6240\u6709\u6578\u5b57\u90fd\u6d88\u5931\u5f8c\u5c07\u78ba\u5b9a\u7372\u5229\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6b78\u96f6\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u59cb\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e0b\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u540c\u7d44\u76f8\u9023<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u628a\u5c3e\u6578\u4ee5\u6578\u5217\u7684\u9806\u5e8f\u6b78\u985e\u70ba\u4e00\u7d44\uff0c\u4f8b\u59821\u30014\u30017 \/ 2\u30015\u30018 \/ 3\u30016\u30019\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u5404\u5225\u5206\u6563\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u80fd\u589e\u52a0\u8ced\u535a\u512a\u52e2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u540c\u5c3e\u76f8\u9023<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u7576\u5c3e\u6578\u51fa\u73fe\u9023\u5c3e\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u7372\u52dd\u6a5f\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u9ad8\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u628a\u63e1\u6a5f\u6703\u8ddf\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u8f2a\u76e4\u7981\u5fcc<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4e0d\u8981\u63a1\u7528\u5305\u865f\u7b56\u7565<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee5\u55ae\u6ce8\u4f86\u8b1b\uff0c\u96a8\u4fbf\u62bc\u4e00\u500b\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u8ce0\u7387\u662f\u300c1\uff1a35\u300d\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u4e00\u53e3\u6c23\u530535\u500b\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6709\u6a5f\u7387\u958b\u51fa\u5176\u4ed62\u500b\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u6982\u7387\u4f86\u7b97\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4e00\u76e4\u6c92\u6709\u62bc\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u9808\u8d0f35\u76e4\u624d\u80fd\u88dc\u56de\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5305\u865f\u6295\u6ce8\u9019\u500b\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u592a\u9ad8\u3001\u6295\u5831\u7387\u53c8\u592a\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u7d55\u4e0d\u8caa\u5fc3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5e38\u5e38\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u5230\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e0d\u8db3\u86c7\u541e\u8c61\uff0c\u8caa\u5b57\u8b8a\u8ca7\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7576\u4f60\u8d0f\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6642\uff0c\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u8981\u8d70\u706b\u5165\u9b54\u535a\u6bba\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u5b78\u6703\u9ede\u5230\u70ba\u6b62\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4fdd\u6301\u7406\u6027<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u6240\u6709\u535a\u5f08\u904a\u6232\u90fd\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u52dd\u8ca0\u8d77\u4f0f\u591a\u5927\u90fd\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u5805\u6301\u4fdd\u6301\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u842c\u842c\u4e0d\u53ef\u66b4\u885d\u6216\u8ced\u6c23\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u4e00\u5931\u53bb\u7406\u667a\uff0c\u52dd\u8ca0\u5c07\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u99ac\u4e0a\u9006\u8f49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u62fc\u591a\u591a\u5a1b\u6a02\u57ce<\/a>\u7d50\u8a9e<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u770b\u5b8c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u89ba\u5f97\u8f2a\u76e4\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e00\u6b3e\u4e0a\u624b\u7c21\u55ae\u3001\u7cbe\u901a\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u535a\u5f08\u904a\u6232\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5206\u4eab\u80fd\u8b93\u73a9\u5bb6\u958b\u59cb\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u5b78\u7fd2\u66f4\u591a\u6295\u6ce8\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u539f\u5247\u3001\u521d\u5b78\u8005\u61c9\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u73a9\u8f2a\u76e4\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5982\u4f55\u96a8\u8457\u7d93\u9a57\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u6539\u9032\u6295\u6ce8\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u63d0\u9ad8\u8f2a\u76e4\u7372\u52dd\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4ee5\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8a2d\u7f6e\u904a\u6232\u4e26\u5728\u73a9\u4e4b\u524d\u6e96\u5099\u597d\u4e00\u5207\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u73a9\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002\u795d\u60a8\u597d\u904b\uff0c\u73a9\u5f97\u76e1\u8208\uff01 \uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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